Tier 7:

• Zay Flowers

• Ladd McConkey

• Javonte Williams

• Jaylen Waddle

• Tee Higgins

• Colston Loveland

• Tetairoa McMillan 

• Tyler Warren

• Parker Washington 

Zay Flowers is a solid combination of safety & upside. The only thing that could detail another 1,200 yard season is Lamar Jackson’s health. Ladd McConkey looks to be firmly in the driver's seat as the leader of a MUCH improved passing offense in Los Angeles. Javonte Williams is in a high-scoring offense in Dallas & he seemingly has a hold on a 75-80% opportunity share with Mafah & Blue as the secondary/tertiary options. Jaylen Waddle finishing as a top 10 receiver wouldn’t shock me. He’s developed into a three-level winner who will help this offense & Bo Nix tremendously - something we aren’t accounting for is the designed looks he will be receiving with Nix’s ankle on the mend. On a per-target basis, Tee Higgins is undoubtedly a WR1 - the only item that scares you is injury. Both to Burrow & to himself - if he can get past that in 2026, he’s going to outperform his cost. Colston Loveland’s upside is a top two Tight End in all of football - he is in the best offense of any top Tight End.

Tetairoa McMillan is interesting, because on one hand he had over 1,000 yards as a Rookie & Won NFC Rookie Of the Year… on the other, during the last Six games of 2026 he was outperformed by Jalen Coker. This will be a more pass-friendly offense without Rico Dowdle, and I project McMillan to be around the 1,100 yards to end the season. Tyler Warren enters a post-Michael Pittman Jr. era, which leads to over 110 targets being available with no one being added to Shane Stiechen's offense. Warren had an excellent Rookie year & paced the Colts in targets & yards - I think that can continue into 2027 with him potentially sniffing 950 yards & 8 total touchdowns. Parker Washington is one of those players that I believe we are overthinking heading into the year. For some reason we are apprehensive about Brian Thomas Jr stealing significant work…. well let’s look at what both have done with Trevor Lawrence. 

Thomas Jr. has played 25 career games with Trevor Lawrence in those 25 games… 

• One 100 yard game which came in October of 2024

• Two games over 5 receptions 

Has Thomas Jr. been better in their last five games? 

• 39 yards per game which is 663 yards over a standard 17 games 

• 3 receptions per game 

Parker Washington has had three 100 yard games in his last five games with Lawrence, three out of those five games he had over 5 receptions - last five game average comes out to 6 receptions for 78.4 yards per game…. 99 receptions, 1,326 yards over 17 games.

Now, will he hit that? 

Likely not since that seems to be a best case scenario however, it seems safe to see Washington as the leader in targets, yards, and receptions. The Jaguars are a top tier offense & I want the best option in that system every single time. 

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Tier 8:

• Kyren Williams

• Travis Etienne Jr.

• Quinshon Judkins

• D.J Moore

• Carnell Tate

• Cam Skattebo

• Jameson Williams 

• Bhayshul Tuten

• Deandre Swift

• Luther Burden III

• Jadarian Price 

The good news is that Kyren Williams has averaged 98 total yards per game over the past three seasons, the bad news is that annual production is dropping year over year. 112.2 - 92.6. - 90.1ypg. Blake Corum averaged 46 yards per game in 2025 with better down-to-down metrics than Williams. Kyren is a good floor play, however with Blake Corum likely to earn around 15% more playing time, it’s difficult to see him above 80 total ypg. I have Kyren around 72 yards per game with Corum circling around 55 to 60. This is a high-powered offense with room for both of these guys to earn meaningful work. Etienne Jr. enters one of my favorite offenses in the NFL in a Kellen Moore-led Saints squad. He’ll see a vast majority of the early down & low Redzone work, with Kamara taking away some of the 3rd-down opportunities.

Quinshon Judkins may have the highest upside between he, Williams & Etienne Jr. Judkins may very well be the bellcow & earn more touches than both of the two backs I have ahead of him in this tier. Where it gets tricky is how poor this Cleveland Browns offense is. The Browns are a Tier 4 environment who project to stagnate this year with the uneven nature of their Quarterback position & the fact that they will be playing from behind a TON. D.J Moore’s career has been filled with incredibly frustrating moments with glaring lack of effort, however there is no one in this Buffalo receiver room that scares you away from Moore likely eclipsing 130 targets. Any passing game option that is receiving 130 targets in a Tier 1 offense is one that I am buying. Carnell Tate is similar to Moore in that there is not much that scares you away from three-level, high-share volume - the difference lies within the environment. The Titans were a bottom-tier offense in 2025 & if you think they improve into Tier 3, then Tate is worth the buy on his talent alone.

Cam Skattebo will be the most important piece of the Giants' new-look offense with Malik Nabers likely being slow-played into significant snaps. Skattebo himself is battling a return from a nasty lower limb fracture, but seems to have turned a corner in terms of recovery. Skattebo averaged 82 total yards per game during his starts & I predict that’s around where he will end up if he plays all 17. Jameson Williams is a lower floor, higher ceiling option who looks to have his third straight thousand-yard campaign. Detroit is a Tier 1 offensive system - that’s not changing in 2027 unless Goff gets bitten by the injury bug. Bhayshul Tuten was a project that I didn’t think would pan out as a Rookie, that much was true, however with Travis Etienne Jr. signing with the Saints that leaves nearly 1,400 yards & 296 touches on the table. Great offense, great offensive mind & one that likes to run the football. Sign me up for Tuten at cost & maybe even a round earlier. D’Andre Swift is a similar cost to Tuten & I feel good about them both returning value. With Swift you get a more comfortable floor with his previous body of work, but a limited ceiling with Monangai in the fold as an ascending option. 

Speaking of Bears… Luther Burden is getting A TON of buzz coming from training camp & it is absolutely warranted. Ben Johnson drafted Burden & Loveland with the plan of being the centerpieces of his ascending environment. He inherited Odunze & handpicked Burden to play a large role - take the injury discount here because the Bears are likely being cautious with how important Burden is. Jadarian Price is another upside swing, however one that comes with a more comfortable floor than we realize. There are 456 touches between Walker & a recovering Zach Charbonnet up for grabs, which means there are 27 touches per game left available early until Charbonnet returns. My assumption is Price will absorb 17 or so touches per game until Charbonnet returns, which is about 65% of the work, Holani & Wilson filling in the rest of the 35%. 65% of work in a tier one offense is more than enough to be a weekly starter, especially when there is upside to seeing 8 to 10% more if he performs well. 

Tier 9:

• David Montgomery

• TrayVeon Henderson

• Kyle Pitts Sr.

• Kenneth Gainwell

• Michael Pittman Jr.

• Jordyn Tyson

• Mike Evans

• Christian Watson

• Rico Dowdle

• Davante Adams 

David Montgomery isn’t a sexy pick whatsoever, but the Texans gave him $10 million GTD & a raise for a reason. He’s going to command a likely 75% or more of the rush share & there is no one to stand in the way of 90% of the Redzone work. At this stage in his career, my expectation is 280 touches for around 1,250 total yards. If he meets those metrics, he will be a steal at the current ADP of RB24 off the board. TrayVeyon Henderson is a big play waiting to happen, and you’re shooting for that upside. When the Patriots play teams that are below average in rush defense then he is in position for blow up weeks, the issue with Henderson is that his receiving usage is nonexistent, averaging 7 yards per game in his last five contests. Kyle Pitts is a big one for Tight End Premium leagues, and even in your normal redraft situations he is a viable TE1 who should provide some stability as the second option in an offense that projects to play behind more than in 2025.

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Kenneth Gainwell is a surprise here, and especially because most people are taking Bucky Irving over him. Gainwell projects as the better receiver & with Irving’s poor recent health, there is a chance that Gainwell takes over as the lead back in a solid offense in Tampa. The pass game work is likely to go to Gainwell, and the low Redzone work hasn’t traditionally gone to Irving… and if it goes to Gainwell, he is a massive value at cost. Michael Pittman Jr. is likely to be the target leader in Pittsburgh, and he’s received over 110 targets every single season since 2021. Speaking of injury, Jordyn Tyson has missed a lot of time both in college as well as in the early part of the off-season; however if he stays healthy he is going to be a major target earner in an ascending offensive system. Mike Evans is battling yet another injury, but with Ricky Pearsall missing the entire 2026 season Evans will likely lead the 49ers in receiving. Again, going back to the offensive environment index - it doesn’t have to look pretty, but if the price is right you always want to have the leading pass catcher in tier 1 & 2 offenses on your roster.

Christian Watson is ready to take off. He’s going to play a three-level role in this Packers offense at the Z position - he’s the betting man to lead the Packers in receiving in 2026. Rico Dowdle is going to play the “banger” role in the Steelers offense where he is reunited with Mike McCarthy. He had a breakout season for the Panthers in 2025 with nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage & 7 touchdowns. I project he will be closer to 1,200 total yards, however, he is a good bet to see the end zone ten times in 2026. Assuming he plays the same role in 2026, Devante Adams will be a lock for 8 plus touchdowns. Yardage totals will vary week to week, but the touchdown floor is safe with his low Redzone presence.