Ascension grades
Quarterbacks (Class of 2023)
70% film / 30% analytics
Tier 1: 75.00 & over -- Gold Jacket potential
Tier 2: 65.00 - 74.99 -- Multiple time Pro-bowler
Tier 3: 55.00 - 64.99 -- Long-term starter ceiling/high-risk prospect
Tier 4: 45.00 - 54.99 -- Capable starter/low ceiling prospect
Tier 5: 35.00 - 44.99 -- Low-end starter ceiling
Tier 6: 34.99 & below -- Career backup
Tier 2: Pro-bowler
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Bryce Young | Alabama
Film grade: 49.48
Analytic grade: 19.74
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Ascension grade: 69.22
-- Second highest film grade in this entire cycle, regardless of position.
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-- True "Point Guard" who commands an offense rather than runs a system. Reminds me of watching Prime Chris Paul on the Basketball court - sees things that others don't, and always has an answer for the unique situation.
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-- His 99th percentile improvisational skillset makes up for his non-traditional height & weight. Gets out of trouble with ease & regularity - has sneaky good qualities as an accelerator when he puts his foot down and gets upfield.
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-- Layers throws well at the second and third level; not a glaring hole in his skillset as a passer besides non-elite arm strength when pushing the ball. Shoulder injury stood out in 2022.
-- Analytically, he graded out as a safe prospect with no huge deficit. Worst grade was in his rushing touchdown probability per game, but that isn't going to hurt his floor - would just be a bonus if he was a high-upside scorer there.
-- Reminds me a lot of Joe Burrow. Cool, and calm, makes big plays when you need him to. Has that 'gamer' mentality that you can see. Like Burrow, I anticipate the ceiling of Young being that of a 4,400-yard passer, with a 300-yard rushing upside annually.
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Production outcomes
Ceiling outcome -- Joe Burrow
Floor outcome -- Jared Goff
Tier 2: Pro-bowler
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C.J. Stroud | Ohio State
Film grade: 44.12
Analytic grade: 22.24
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Ascension grade: 66.36
-- Three-level accuracy is Stroud's calling card. 90th percentile or above accuracy scores across the board. Impressed with his tight window ability.
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-- Ball placement is high level- rarely do you see him severely underthrow or overthrow his receivers.
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-- Would like to see more play-action concepts in the NFL with Stroud - 18:2 interception ratio in 2022.
-- Better than average play speed, would enjoy seeing him utilized on RPO's as well.
-- Analytically, his College QBR was in the 99th percentile of all prospects - 90th percentile or above in experience-adjusted passing as well as yards per attempt. 2nd highest analytic grades behind Hendon Hooker in this cycle.
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-- The rushing upside and accuracy are what leads me to his ceiling outcome of being a Dak Prescott caliber player. Prescott has two seasons of over 4,400 yards passing and four of over 250 yards rushing. If Stroud can consistently take off when he see plays break down, 200 + yards annually on the ground is attainable. The Georgia game was an eye-opener for most scouts.
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Production outcomes
Ceiling outcome -- Pre-ankle injury Dak Prescott
Floor outcome -- Ryan Tannehill
Tier 3: High ceiling/High risk
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Hendon Hooker | Tennessee
Film grade: 36.74
Analytic grade: 22.50
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Ascension grade: 59.24
-- If it wasn't for the ACL injury I firmly believe that NFL teams would be willing to take Hooker in the middle of the first round. Offers immediate starter potential with a polished, league-ready skillset.
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-- He & Stroud are the two best deep balls throwers in this class. Regularly, do you see Hooker hitting his receivers in stride - he did benefit from two NFL-caliber receivers at Tennessee in Tillman & Hyatt.
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-- Think he needs a high-end deep threat on the outside to maximize what he brings to the table.
-- Analytically, he is the highest-graded player at the position and comes with a 99th percentile TD:INT ratio. Every analytic score from Hooker was over 70th percentile.
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-- The injury is kind of a question mark and makes his career outcomes a bit murky, however we did just see Joe Burrow suffer the same injury and come back with no physical issues post-surgery. Hooker's willingness to push the ball downfield as well as his three-level accuracy gives me Geno Smith vibes. Smith threw for over 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns this past season - around those marks are Hooker's ceiling if he returns to form.
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Production outcomes
Ceiling outcome -- Current Geno Smith
Floor outcome -- Jimmy Garoppolo
Tier 3: High ceiling/High risk
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Anthony Richardson | Florida
Film grade: 42.00
Analytic grade: 13.50
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Ascension grade: 55.50
-- The best pure athlete in the whole entire 2023 NFL Draft - hands down.
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-- Incredible blend of force & finesse as a pure runner at the position. Has movement solutions in space and in the pocket that make you simply scratch your head as to how he did it. Top flight improvisational skills, rushing ability, and arm talent.
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-- He gets a bad label because of his athletic ability and stature. Showed some great promise down the stretch with his decision-making and reading his downfield menu.
-- Not a finished product in terms of footwork and on-schedule mechanics, but he doesn't need to be right now.
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-- My fear is that he gets with an uncreative offensive mind who tries to mitigate his skillset by pigeonholing him into a system. Look at Malik Willis with Todd Downing in Tennessee, a talented athlete, and thrower - with an absolute disaster of a coordinator. Richardson is a better passer than Willis is, but like Willis, he does require a team willing to formulate an offense around his unique skills. Can't just fit in and run a current system.
-- Analytically, he profiles as a large risk with less than 35th percentile scores in experience-adjusted passing & TD:INT ratio. 80th percentile rushing touchdown probability props him up.
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-- Richardson will either be a mega-star in the NFL who figures it out by year three or is out of the league in six years. I am leaning towards him figuring it out and hoping an offensive coordinator can maximize his skillset like Sirianni did with Jalen Hurts. We look at Hurts' progress as a passer and comfort level as a ceiling for Richardson.
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Production outcomes
Ceiling outcome -- Jalen Hurts
Floor outcome -- Jake Locker
Tier 5: Low-end starter
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Will Levis | Kentucky
Film grade: 31.62
Analytic grade: 12.00
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Ascension grade: 43.62
-- Fun prospect with glimpses of high-end talent, but with just as many backup-level plays.
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-- Has the prototypical size, and movement skills of a starting caliber NFL Quarterback - it's the consistent, positive decision-making that has to take a shift. Drastic difference between his 2021 tape & 2022, when his weapons changed his progress seemed to plateau.
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-- Can make all the throws, struggles a bit with boundary accuracy at the second & third level. Will require a patient offensive mind; being thrust into action early on may stunt his growth.
-- Analytically, outside of an 80th percentile QBR, his scores fluctuate between 20th & 40th percentile. Like Richardson, the risk is high, but the upside is higher.
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-- We look at a Quarterback like Carson Wentz as his ceiling comparable. Pre-injury Wentz was on his way to an MVP-caliber season, now he is a journeyman who is struggling to hang onto a team. A prospect like Levis is difficult to evaluate because of the contrast between seasons - think his floor outcome may be more realistic than his ceiling.
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Production outcomes
Ceiling outcome -- Carson Wentz
Floor outcome -- Zach Wilson