Bust rate
Formula = Movement literacy & injury rate + Holistic Ascension Grade + Draft Capital Index
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The percentage chance of someone "busting" is different based on position.
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Quarterbacks -- Likelihood the prospect will not achieve a top-twelve fantasy finish in their first three seasons
Running Backs --Likelihood the prospect will not achieve a top-fifteen fantasy finish in their first three seasons
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Wide Receivers -- Likelihood the prospect will not achieve a top-twenty-four fantasy finish in their first three seasons
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Tight Ends -- Likelihood the prospect will not achieve a top-eight fantasy finish in their first three seasons
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The lower the percentage = the better chance the prospects hits the positional threshold
Quarterbacks -- Likelihood of not achieving a top-twelve finish within three seasons
1 -- Bryce Young -- 3.59% chance
2 -- C.J. Stroud -- 22.88% chance
3-- Anthony Richardson -- 24.83% chance
4-- Hendon Hooker -- 58.89% chance
5 -- Will Levis -- 57.13% chance
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Running Backs -- Likelihood of not achieving a top-fifteen finish within three seasons
1 -- Bijan Robinson -- 2.50% chance
2 -- Jahmyr Gibbs -- 7.54% chance
3-- Zach Charbonnet -- 24.83% chance
4 -- Tank Bigsby -- 45.71% chance
5 - Roschon Johnson -- 46.21% chance
6 -- Devon Achane -- 53.54% chance
7 -- Deuce Vaughn -- 58.80% chance
8 - Kendre Miller -- 63.29% chance
9 -- Sean Tucker -- 65.08% chance
10 -- Tyjae Spears -- 71.59% chance
11 -- Eric Gray -- 72.09% chance
12 -- Kenny McIntosh- - 76.79% chance
13 -- Zach Evans -- 79.42% chance
14 -- DeWayne McBride -- 81.09% chance
15 -- Chris Rodriguez Jr. -- 81.25% chance
16 -- Lew Nichols III -- 83.30% chance
17 -- Israel Abanikanda -- 87.67% chance
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Wide Receivers -- Likelihood of not achieving a top-twenty-four finish within three seasons
1 -- Zay Flowers -- 14.71% chance
2 -- Jordan Addison -- 20.84% chance
3 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- 23.67% chance
4 -- Quentin Johnston -- 30.55% chance
5 -- Marvin Mims -- 40.88% chance
6 -- Jonathan Mingo -- 42.09% chance
7 -- Josh Downs -- 43.34% chance
8 -- Rashee Rice -- 46.29% chance
9-- Jayden Reed -- 51.18% chance
10 -- Tank Dell -- 54.21% chance
11 -- Jalin Hyatt -- 54.63% chance
12 -- Cedric Tillman -- 59.29% chance
13 -- Tyler Scott-- 62.29% chance
14 -- Charlie Jones -- 64.71% chance
15 -- Puka Nacua -- 67.80% chance
17 -- Michael Wilson-- 71.59% chance
18 -- Dontavyion Wicks -- 79.63% chance
19 -- Kayshon Boutte -- 80.01% chance
Tight Ends -- Likelihood of not achieving a top-eight finish within three seasons
1 -- Michael Mayer -- 23.13% chance
2 -- Dalton Kincaid -- 33.59% chance
3 -- Sam Laporta -- 40.00% chance
4 -- Luke Musgrave-- 49.91% chance
5 -- Luke Schoonmaker -- 61.75% chance
6 -- Darnell Washington-- 67.88% chance
7 -- Tucker Kraft -- 82.75% chance