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 Bust rate

Formula = Movement literacy & injury rate + Holistic Ascension Grade + Draft Capital Index

The percentage chance of someone "busting" is different based on position.

Quarterbacks -- Likelihood the prospect will not achieve a top-twelve fantasy finish in their first three seasons 

 

Running Backs --Likelihood the prospect will not achieve a top-fifteen fantasy finish in their first three seasons 

Wide Receivers -- Likelihood the prospect will not achieve a top-twenty-four fantasy finish in their first three seasons 

Tight Ends --  Likelihood the prospect will not achieve a top-eight fantasy finish in their first three seasons 

The lower the percentage = the better chance the prospects hits the positional threshold

Quarterbacks -- Likelihood of not achieving a top-twelve finish within three seasons 

1 -- Bryce Young -- 3.59% chance 

2 -- C.J. Stroud -- 22.88% chance

3-- Anthony Richardson -- 24.83% chance

4-- Hendon Hooker -- 58.89% chance 

5 -- Will Levis -- 57.13% chance
 

Running Backs -- Likelihood of not achieving a top-fifteen finish within three seasons

 

1 -- Bijan Robinson -- 2.50% chance 

2 -- Jahmyr Gibbs -- 7.54% chance

3-- Zach Charbonnet -- 24.83% chance

4 -- Tank Bigsby -- 45.71% chance

5 - Roschon Johnson -- 46.21% chance 

6 -- Devon Achane -- 53.54% chance 

7 -- Deuce Vaughn -- 58.80% chance 

8 - Kendre Miller -- 63.29% chance 

9 -- Sean Tucker -- 65.08% chance

10 -- Tyjae Spears -- 71.59% chance

11 -- Eric Gray -- 72.09% chance

12 -- Kenny McIntosh- - 76.79% chance

13 -- Zach Evans -- 79.42% chance

14 -- DeWayne McBride -- 81.09% chance

15 -- Chris Rodriguez Jr. -- 81.25% chance 

16 -- Lew Nichols III -- 83.30% chance

17 -- Israel Abanikanda -- 87.67% chance 

Wide Receivers -- Likelihood of not achieving a top-twenty-four finish within three seasons

1 -- Zay Flowers -- 14.71% chance

2 -- Jordan Addison -- 20.84% chance

3 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- 23.67% chance 

4 -- Quentin Johnston -- 30.55% chance

5 -- Marvin Mims -- 40.88% chance

6 -- Jonathan Mingo -- 42.09% chance

7 -- Josh Downs -- 43.34% chance

8 -- Rashee Rice -- 46.29% chance

9-- Jayden Reed -- 51.18% chance

10 -- Tank Dell -- 54.21% chance 

11 -- Jalin Hyatt -- 54.63% chance

12 -- Cedric Tillman -- 59.29% chance 

13 -- Tyler Scott-- 62.29% chance

14 -- Charlie Jones -- 64.71% chance

15 -- Puka Nacua -- 67.80% chance

17 -- Michael Wilson-- 71.59% chance

18 -- Dontavyion Wicks -- 79.63% chance

19 -- Kayshon Boutte -- 80.01% chance

Tight Ends -- Likelihood of not achieving a top-eight finish within three seasons

 

1 -- Michael Mayer -- 23.13% chance 

2 -- Dalton Kincaid -- 33.59% chance

3 -- Sam Laporta -- 40.00% chance

4  -- Luke Musgrave-- 49.91% chance

5 -- Luke Schoonmaker -- 61.75% chance

6 -- Darnell Washington-- 67.88% chance 

7 -- Tucker Kraft -- 82.75% chance

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